Oil Sector Stocks – Closing Notes, Thursday, October 20
Oct 20, 2016 Trading Blog
Today pretty much went according to yesterday’s closing notes post. Open dip down to the 8 day moving average and then right back to the middle of the profile fair value area around $70.90. The dip on the open was a little deeper than I expected, but I was still able to pick it at 70.15 for a ride back up to 70.46. The entry was a little easier having Wednesday’s API gap as support, which didn’t quite get filled. Only a few short rides in XLE during the day and one trade in COG that was a loser. COG had a big volume spike around noon and I got long 21.74 but it pulled right straight back to about 21.30 before it ripped past 22. Managed to cut it at 21.62, so it wasn’t a big deal.
Tomorrow should see the XLE find support around the 70.50 level for a long trade off that level on the open. I’d probably be looking to stop out if it got back under the 8 day moving average around 70.35. If XLE gaps up, I’ll definitely be waiting for a gap close long and then a move to the low volume area around 71.30.
Mostly though it was just a day that saw the XLE go nowhere, finishing down just .1%. The XOP +.24% outperformed the OIH -.55%.
Yesterday’s big losers were today’s big winners with natural gas stocks up nicely. COG +2.2%, SWN +1.5%, RRC +1% and AR +.4%.
Refiners were solid with VLO +.4%, MPC +.9%, TSO +1.3% and WNR +1.9%.
Pipelines were led by KMI +2.4%. Good earnings on Wednesday kept that one up. WMB +.4% and PSX +.1%.
Big oil didn’t do much with XOM +.1%, CVX -.4% and BP even.
Some of the smaller independents had good days with WLL +.8%, OAS +3.6%, CHK +2.8%. APA -1.3% and COP -.6% both had a tough day.
On the services side CLB -8% was the biggest loser. The onshore drillers had been very strong over the past couple weeks, but HP -1.9%, PTEN -2% and NBR -1% gave back some of those gains today. Keep an eye on those for a pullback toward the 8ma for a second chance entry.
FTI +4.3% had a good day due to earnings on Wednesday.