Oil and Gas Stock Notes, July 11, 2017
Jul 11, 2017 Trading Blog
It’s been awhile since I’ve posted my trading notes on the site, but I’m slowly starting to get back into the habit of nightly research and writing. Going to try and post my notes here more often, but making no promises LOL.
Also, I’ve started posting my trades on the Twitter page. I sometimes forget to post my exits though. I’m going to try and get more complete with that, posting stops and targets also. Posting it on Twitter seems to help me actually hold to my plan for some reason.
Statistics
EIA Short Term Energy Outlook Report
Sector
XLE was up +.5%, mostly held back by XOM and CVX. The XOP was a better indicator of mood today in E&P, up .9%. The services sector was even stronger with OIH up +1.3%. As for the commodity itself, oil closed at $45.04 (+1.4%) and USO was mostly flat after that into the market close.
Major Integrated
The big boys XOM (+.6%), CVX (+.1%), BP (+.1%), RDSA (+.4%), TOT (+.7%) didn’t do much today. Volume on all of them was at least 30% less than average. XOM got an upgrade by Barclay’s this morning, but they aren’t really a big force in energy. I’ve seen Barclay’s making an abnormally large number of calls on energy stocks and the actual commodity lately, but almost all of their moves have been down, and way late.
Independent E&P
The best E&P today seemed to be mid-continent related, SCOOP/STACK names in NFX (+1.8%), DVN (+2.7%), CLR (+2.2%) XEC (+1.3%). DVN was out this morning with an update and some good news on a STACK well, maybe the others were sympathy plays with that release. Bakken names were also very positive with HES (+1.5%), WLL (+2.1%), OAS (+1.6%). Most of the larger diversified E&P, COP (+.2%), APC (+.1%), OXY (+.3%), NBL (-.2%) followed the behavior of the major integrateds showing very little change. In the Permian, SM (+2.2%), CXO (+1.7%), PE (+2.1%), LPI (+1.4%), and CPE (+.9%) showed positive movement. Canadian and oil sands names CNQ (+1.2%), SU (+1.7%), IMO (+1.9%) and CVE (+1.4%) made a nice run in the last 30 minutes and were hitting highs even with the XOP much lower. Maybe the Barclays recommendations for SU, IMO and CVE finally kicked in, who knows.
The most interesting stock of the day was HK (+51.2%), which sold off a majority of its Bakken assets in order to focus strictly on the Permian. The stock wiped prior owners out with a reorganization, but they have a decent balance sheet now with additional debt reduction from this sale and a new focus in a prime area. Could be worth keeping an eye on in the future. Hopefully, management learned something from their prior mistakes.
Natural Gas
All the natural gas names were up COG (+.9%), RRC (+1.8%), EQT (+1.9%), AR (+1.0%) and SWN (+2.2%). ECR (+2.1%) was the sector name up the most and that is the nat gas stock that seems to be providing the most growth opportunity right now. SWN might be the one name that provides the highest percentage trading gain possibility in the near future.
Services
FTI (+1.5%) has had some positive moves over the last few days and it seems to be the strongest of the group, more green for it today. HAL (+.9%) reported that they have been hiring about 100 workers per week. NOV (+1.8%) had a solid day also. Several of the sand names were weak with FMSA (-.3%), EMES (+.1%), SND (-2.6%). SLCA (+1.5%) was the only sand name showing much strength. FMSA was my only trade today. I averaged in early this morning into a 3.08 average long and still have that position as it was showing strength at the close even with XOP fading off. Also, the sand group was the only group showing better than average volume today.
Onshore Drillers
NBR (+.9%), HP (+1.2%), PTEN (+1.4%), PES (+7.7%). PES is an interesting name and definitely one that could produce a huge percentage gain if the rig count continues to grow.
Offshore Drillers
RIG (+.8%), ESV (+1.4%), DO (+2.1%), NE (+3.7%). ESV was the volume leader on my entire O&G list doing a little more than 2x volume.
Refiners
Refiners were the worst performing group in the energy sector today with oil being up 1.4%. VLO (-.3%), MPC (+.2%), HFC (-.4%), PSX (-.1%), PBF (-.5%).